In the previously posted article, the researcher states that getting the vaccine makes no sense, with 44 deaths in 15,037 tested girls who had adverse affects. (The number of girls who did not have side effects is not given; we don't know if half of the subjects had problems or just one percent.)
No matter what small percentage of girls have side effects in the first place, 44 deaths sounds pretty bad, so is the vaccine worth it? Let's calculate the predicted number of deaths within the population of affected girls without the vaccine:
15,037 girls had side effects from the vaccine (1)
*80% of women in the US get HPV during their lifetime (2)
----------
12,029.6 of the girls with side effects would get HPV in their lifetime
*5% of HPV infections cause cancer (1)
----------
601.48 of those girls would get cervical cancer
*29% deathrate of cervical cancer (3)
----------
176 of these girls would die of cervical cancer
-44 deaths from the vaccine (1)
----------
132 survive who wouldn't otherwise
So without any other changes in cervical cancer treatment, just having the vaccine would save 132 of the girls who had side effects. Seems worth it to me!
(1) http://thebulletin.us/articles/2009/10/25/top_stories/doc4ae4b76d07e16766677720.txt
(2) http://www.ashastd.org/hpv/hpv_learn_patfactsheet.cfm
(3) http://www.cancer.org/docroot/CRI/content/CRI_2_4_1X_What_are_the_key_statistics_for_cervical_cancer_8.asp
Edit: Changed source 2 to one with more consistent statistics
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
"It suggests the actual infection rate is about 60 per cent higher, or about 1 in 4 females aged between 14 and 59." isn't one in four 25% not 80%??
ReplyDelete